| 侯月,廖基定.基于马尔科夫过程修正的湖南洪涝灾变灰预测研究[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(4):95~100.[HOU Yue,LIAO Ji-ding.Grey Prediction of Flood Disaster in Hunan Based on MarkovChain Correction[J].Journal of University of South China(Science and Technology),2017,31(4):95~100.] |
| 基于马尔科夫过程修正的湖南洪涝灾变灰预测研究 |
| Grey Prediction of Flood Disaster in Hunan Based on MarkovChain Correction |
| 投稿时间：2017-09-29 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 洪涝灾害 灰色残差模型 马尔科夫过程 灾年预测 |
| 英文关键词:flood disaster grey residual model Markov process predic disasters |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 855 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过对1985~2015年的湖南省受灾率和成灾率的数据分析,研究未来15年湖南省洪涝灾害的灾年预测和发展趋势.利用统计数据建立灰色灾变模型GM(1,1),得到了洪涝灾害有阶段性波动且受灾率与成灾率有明显的同步性的结论.经由马尔科夫过程修正的灰色残差模型,具有更高的准确率,可为中长期预测提供参考. |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the data analysis of the disaster rate and hazard rate in Hunan Province in 1985~2015,this paper researches the disaster prediction and the development trend of flood disaster in Hunan Province in the next 15 years.Using statistical data to establish the grey catastrophe model GM(1,1),the flood disaster has periodic fluctuations and disaster rate and hazard rate have obvious synchronization conclusion.Through the grey residual model of Markov process correction,with higher accuracy,it can provide reference for long-term forecasting. |
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