| 陈进,吴爱祥,王洪武.世界与我国铅锌产量和消费量的重构相空间混沌预测[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版),2007,21(3):23~27.[.International and Domestic Lead- zinc Output and Consumption Prediction on Reconstructing Phase Space of Chaos[J].Journal of University of South China(Science and Technology),2007,21(3):23~27.] |
| 世界与我国铅锌产量和消费量的重构相空间混沌预测 |
| International and Domestic Lead- zinc Output and Consumption Prediction on Reconstructing Phase Space of Chaos |
| 修订日期：2007-05-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 铅锌市场 混沌 重构相空间 |
| 英文关键词:lead and zinc market,chaos,reconstructing phase space |
| 基金项目: |
| 陈进 吴爱祥 王洪武 |
| 中南大学资源与安全工程学院 中南大学资源与安全工程学院 湖南长沙 云南驰宏锌锗股份有限公司 云南曲靖 湖南长沙 |
| 摘要点击次数: 737 |
| 全文下载次数: 1 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 通过对世界与我国铅锌产量和消费量的详细调查,采用混沌理论重构相空间预测方法,对世界与我国铅锌生产和消费趋势进行了预测.研究表明,世界与我国铅锌产量和消费量的演化均存在混沌现象,且锌金属产量和消费量演化的分形维数比铅金属高,说明锌市场变化比铅市场复杂.预测结果显示,2010年以后世界铅锌产量小于消费量,市场将出现短缺,且锌金属短缺程度比铅金属严重;我国铅金属将出现过剩,而且越来越严重,锌金属产消基本平衡.此外,探讨了我国铅锌原料供需矛盾.研究结论为:我国铅精矿将出现严重的短缺,锌精矿短缺程度比铅工业略好,但资源短缺将会长期存在.针对我国铅金属生产严重过剩,同时铅精矿严重不足的局面,提出了重点对我国铅工业进行产业结构调整的建议. |
| 英文摘要: |
| International and domestic lead-zinc output and consumption are investigated in detail,and the trends of lead-zinc production and consumption are predicted with a method of chaotic theory of reconstructing phase space.The researches show that the transformation of international and domestic lead-zinc output and consumption have the character of chaos,the fractal dimensions of lead metal are higher than that of zinc metal,and the processes and laws in zinc metal market are complex than that of in lead metal market.The predicting results show that,in the world,output of lead-zinc metal will be less than consumption,lead-zinc metal market will be short,and the lack extent in zinc metal will be severe than that of in lead metal.In China,lead metal will be surplus in market,and the phenomenon will be more and more severe,but the balance between output and consumption in zinc metal market will occur in the future.The contradictions,which exist in lead-zinc raw material between supply and requirement,are researched,and the conclusions are as follows: mining output of lead metal will be short in market,the condition of lack in zinc resources will be better than that of in lead resources,but the phase of lack in lead-zinc resources will occur chronically.According to the condition that lead metal will be surplus severely,and at the same time,mining output of lead industry will be short in market,some suggestions which the fabric of lead industry should be adjusted,are put up emphatically. |
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