| 王晋,鲍麒.人误率预测技术方法的几个问题及应用时的建议[J].南华大学学报(自然科学版),1999,(2):.[.Several Problems about THERP Method and Suggestions while Using the Method[J].Journal of University of South China(Science and Technology),1999,(2):.] |
| 人误率预测技术方法的几个问题及应用时的建议 |
| Several Problems about THERP Method and Suggestions while Using the Method |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 人误率预测技术 对数正态分布 贝塔分布 |
| 英文关键词:THERP method,log nomal distribution,beta distribution, |
| 基金项目: |
| 王晋 鲍麒 |
| Research Institute of Nuclear Power Operation，Wuhan，430074 |
| 摘要点击次数: 735 |
| 全文下载次数: 2 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 本文首先提出ＴＨＥＲＰ方法几个值得注意的问题：人误概率遵从对数正态分布假定的欠合理性、ＴＨＥＲＰ方法中设计出的条件人误概率不确定性边界的计算缺乏连贯性等．针对这些问题，提出了修正建议——假定人误概率Ｐ遵从贝塔分布，并阐述了这一建议的理由．但为了尽量保持ＴＨＥＲＰ方法定量分析的体系及便于计算，最终建议依实际分析的情况交替使用人误概率遵从贝塔分布和对数正态分布的假定并具体给出了实施方法 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper,we first put forward several problems about THERP method: The assumption that human error probability comply with log-nomal distribution is unreasonable; The method raised in THERP method to determine the uncertainty bounds of conditional human error probabilities is short of coherence; and so on. Then we suggest the assumption that human error probability comply with Beta distribution and expound the reason of our suggestion. But in order to keep the quantitative analysis system of THERP method as many as possible we suggest to use the assumption that human error probability comply with Beta distribution and the assumption that human error probability comply with log-nomal distribution alternately according to the situation of analysis. |
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