| 潮燕,陈聪.基于Nomogram建立肝硬化并发急性肾损伤的风险评估模型.[J].中南医学科学杂志.,2023,(5):771-774. |
| 基于Nomogram建立肝硬化并发急性肾损伤的风险评估模型 |
| Risk assessment model of liver cirrhosis with acute renal injury based on Nomogram |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-21 修订日期：2023-08-15 |
| DOI：10.15972/j.cnki.43-1509/r.2023.05.038 |
| 中文关键词: 肝硬化 急性肾损伤 危险因素 列线图 [ |
| 英文关键词:cirrhosis acute kidney injury risk factor Nomogram |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的基于Nomogram建立肝硬化并发急性肾损伤(AKI)的风险评估模型。 方法选取174例肝硬化患者的临床资料,根据AKI发生情况分为AKI组41例和非AKI组133例。采用单因素Logistic回归分析、LASSO回归和多因素Logistic回归分析肝硬化并发AKI的影响因素,并在此基础上建立Nomogram模型。采用C-index、校正曲线、ROC曲线和决策曲线验证模型的预测能力。 结果肝硬化患者AKI的发生率为23.6%。高龄、消化道出血、细菌感染、腹水、低蛋白血症、低钠血症和Child-pugh分级高是肝硬化并发AKI的独立危险因素(P＜0.05)。成功建立肝硬化并发AKI的列线图风险评估模型。模型验证结果显示,C-index为0.884,校正曲线趋近于理想曲线,AUC为0.898(95%CI 0.854~0.933),在2%~91%范围内,模型净获益,模型具有良好的预测能力。 结论肝硬化并发AKI的危险因素包括高龄、消化道出血、细菌感染、腹水、低蛋白血症、低钠血症和Child-pugh分级高,据此构建的列线图模型对肝硬化患者并发AKI的风险具有一定的评估价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| AimTo establish a risk assessment model for liver cirrhosis with acute kidney injury (AKI) based on Nomogram. MethodsThe clinical data of 174 patients with liver cirrhosis were collected. They were divided into AKI group (n＝41) and non AKI group (n＝133) based on the occurrence of AKI. The influencing factors of AKI in liver cirrhosis were analyzed by single factor, LASSO and Logistic regression. On this basis, a Nomogram risk assessment model was established. The C-index, calibration curve, ROC curve, and decision curve were used to validate the predictive ability of the model. ResultsThe incidence of AKI in patients with liver cirrhosis was 23.6%. Elderly age, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, bacterial infection, ascites, hypoproteinemia, hyponatremia and high Child-pugh grade were independent risk factors for cirrhosis with AKI (P＜0.05). A Nomogram risk assessment model for cirrhosis with AKI was established. The model validation results show that when the C-index is 0.884, the calibration curve is close to the ideal curve, and the AUC is 0.898 (95%CI:0.854~0.933). Within the range of 2%~91%, the model has a net benefit, indicating that the model has good predictive capability. ConclusionThe risk factors of cirrhosis with AKI include old age, gastrointestinal bleeding, bacterial infection, ascites, hypoproteinemia, hyponatremia and high Child pugh grade. The nomograph model constructed on this basis has certain evaluation value for the risk of cirrhosis with AKI. |
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