| 李妍琳,孙小康,文智,阳君蓉,刘颖.肺动脉高压合并心律失常的风险列线图预警模型的构建.[J].中南医学科学杂志.,2023,(1):103-106. |
| 肺动脉高压合并心律失常的风险列线图预警模型的构建 |
| Construction of an early warning model of risk nomogram for pulmonary hypertension complicated with arrhythmia |
| 投稿时间：2022-02-23 修订日期：2022-08-28 |
| DOI：10.15972/j.cnki.43-1509/r.2023.01.027 |
| 中文关键词: 肺动脉高压 心律失常 危险因素 列线图预警模型 [ |
| 英文关键词:pulmonary hypertension arrhythmia risk factors nomogram warning model |
| 基金项目:四川省卫生健康委员会科研课题(20PJ248) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的构建肺动脉高压(PAH)合并心律失常的风险列线图预警模型。 方法选取254例PAH患者分为训练集206例,验证集48例。训练集患者根据PAH有无合并心律失常将其分为无心律失常组和心律失常组。采用Logistic回归分析筛选危险因素,采用R软件构建风险列线图预警模型。采用rms程序包计算一致性指数(C-index),绘制校正曲线和ROC曲线评估模型的预测效能。 结果构建的PAH合并心律失常的风险列线图预测模型共纳入了年龄≥60岁、有心律失常史、酸碱不平衡、有心血管疾病、电解质紊乱以及心室增大共6个因素,该模型验证结果显示,训练集和验证集的C-index分别为0.817和0.808,两集的校正曲线均与理想曲线拟合反映良好,ROC曲线下面积分别为0.826和0.815。 结论本列线图模型可准确评估和量化PAH合并心律失常的风险,可为临床预测PAH合并心律失常的发生提供客观参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| AimTo construct a risk nomogram warning model for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) complicated with arrhythmia. Methods254 patients with PAH were divided into 206 training sets and 48 validation sets.The patients in the training set were divided into non-arrhythmia group and arrhythmia group according to whether PAH was complicated with arrhythmia. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors, and R software was used to build a risk nomogram early warning model. The rms program package is used to calculate the consistency index (C-index), and the correction curve and ROC curve are drawn to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the model. ResultsThe constructed nomogram prediction model for the risk of PAH complicated with arrhythmia included a total of 6 factors including age ≥ 60 years old, history of arrhythmia, acid-base imbalance, cardiovascular disease, electrolyte disturbance and ventricular enlargement. The validation results show that the C-index of the training set and the validation set are 0.817 and 0.808, respectively, and the calibration curves of the two sets reflect the ideal curve fitting well , the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.826 and 0.815, respectively. ConclusionThis nomogram model can accurately assess and quantify the risk of PAH complicated with arrhythmia, and can provide an objective reference for clinical prediction of the occurrence of PAH complicated with arrhythmia. |
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