| 张敏,徐杰茹,陈磊,陈悦,周维,让蔚清.2005—2016年中国胰腺癌发病趋势及影响因素分析.[J].中南医学科学杂志.,2022,(3):358-361. |
| 2005—2016年中国胰腺癌发病趋势及影响因素分析 |
| Incidence trends and influencing factors of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2016 |
| 投稿时间：2021-08-06 修订日期：2022-02-19 |
| DOI：10.15972/j.cnki.43-1509/r.2022.03.011 |
| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 肿瘤登记 发病趋势 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词:pancreatic cancer tumor registration incidence trend influencing factor |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(81673107) 作者简介:张敏,硕士研究生,研究方向为流行病与卫生统计学,E-mail为2448780644@qq.com。通信作者让蔚清,博士,教授,硕士研究生导师,研究方向为疾病控制评价,E-mail为nhurwq@126.com。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的分析中国胰腺癌2005—2016年的发病趋势及影响因素。方法摘录2008—2019年出版的《中国肿瘤登记年报》中胰腺癌发病数据,利用Joinpoint模型和负二项回归模型分别进行发病趋势、影响因素分析。结果2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,其中2008—2014年年度变化百分比(APC)呈下降趋势(P＜0.05)。城市地区高于乡村,城市变化起伏大,其中2008—2016年城市APC呈下降趋势(P＜0.05),乡村相对平稳。男性胰腺癌标化发病率高于女性,且变化趋势一致,其中2008—2014年男性APC呈下降趋势(P＜0.05)。＜40岁胰腺癌发病率较低,≥40岁快速上升,在80~85岁时达到高峰。负二项结果显示城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素(P＜0.05)。结论2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To analyze the incidence trends and influencing factors of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2016. MethodsThe incidence data of pancreatic cancer were extracted from The Annual Report of China Cancer Registry from 2008 to 2019. Joinpoint model and negative binomial regression model were used to analyze the trend and influencing factors, respectively. ResultsThe normalized incidence of pancreatic cancer in China was stable from 2005 to 2016, and annual percent change (APC) decreased from 2008 to 2014 (P＜0.05). The urban area is higher than the rural area, and the urban change fluctuates greatly, urban APC shows a downward trend from 2008 to 2016 (P＜0.05), relatively stable in rural areas. The normalized incidence of pancreatic cancer in males was higher than that in females, and the trend was consistent, with male APC decreasing trend from 2008 to 2014 (P＜0.05). The incidence of pancreatic cancer was low in ＜40 years, rising rapidly in ≥40 years old, and reaching a peak in 80－85 old years. The negative binomial result shows:urban and rural areas, age and gender were the influencing factors of pancreatic cancer incidence (P＜0.05). ConclusionThe standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer in China was stable from 2005 to 2016, urban and rural areas, age and gender were the influencing factors of pancreatic cancer incidence. |
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