| 刘洪波,王睿嘉.地方政府隐性债务风险对城投债发行定价的影响——以湖南省为例[J].,2025,(1):63-73 |
| 地方政府隐性债务风险对城投债发行定价的影响——以湖南省为例 |
| The Influence of Local Government Hidden Debt Risk on the Pricing of Chengtou Bonds |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-19 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 地方政府隐性债务 发行定价 发行利差 政府隐性担保 |
| English Keywords:local government implicit debt issuance pricing issue spread government implicit guarantee ( |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 城投债发行定价反映了地方融资平台信用风险与债券自身风险,受地方政府隐性债务风险影响。文章以湖南省下辖各市州数据为例,构建地方政府隐性债务风险指标,检验地方政府隐性债务风险对城投债发行定价的影响及其机制。结论显示:地方政府隐性债务风险越高,城投债发行利差越大。同时“43号文”出台后,市级城投债背后的省级政府隐性债务风险对其产生重要影响。机制分析表明,地方政府隐性债务风险通过抑制外商直接投资(FDI)流入、引起土地资源错配而提高城投债发行利差。异质性分析表明,地方政府隐性债务风险对城投债发行利差的影响在经济发展水平较高、人口净流入、隐性债务规模大的城市更加显著。 |
| English Summary: |
| The pricing of Chengtou bonds reflects the credit risk of local financing platforms and the risks of the bonds themselves, and is influenced by the implicit debt risk of local governments. Taking the data of municipalities and states under the jurisdiction of Hunan Province as an example, this paper constructs the hidden debt risk index of local government and examines the impact of local government hidden debt risk on the pricing of Chengtou bonds issuance and its mechanism. The conclusion shows that the higher the hidden debt risk of local government, the larger the credit spread of Chengtou bonds issuance. At the same time, it is verified that after the introduction of “No. 43 document”, the responsibility subject behind the implicit guarantee of municipal urban investment bonds is the provincial government,which has a significant impact on it. Mechanism analysis shows that the hidden debt risk of local government will increase the credit spread of Chengtou bonds by restraining the inflows of foreign direct investment(FDI)and causing misallocation of land resource. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of local government hidden debt risk on the credit spread is more significant in cities with higher economic development level, net population inflow and large scale of hidden debt. |
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