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| 极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的影响效应及机制研究 |
| A study of the effect and mechanism of extreme weather on the systemic risk of commercial banks |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-20 修订日期：2025-03-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 极端天气 银行系统性风险 直接经济损失 产业链韧性 同业网络 |
| English Keywords:climate change banking systemic risk direct economic loss industry chain resilience peer network |
| Fund Project: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 极端气候给自然生态和人类社会带来巨大灾难，对金融稳定和可持续发展构成了严峻挑战，气候金融风险逐渐成为学术界和政策制定者中的重要议题。基于2007—2023年中国121家地方性商业银行数据和各城市极端天气日数，探究极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的影响。研究发现：极端天气显著加剧了商业银行系统性风险，且经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。作用机制检验表明：极端天气主要通过增加自然灾害直接经济损失和削弱产业链韧性来加剧商业银行系统性风险。调节机制检验表明：银行竞争能够缓释极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的正向影响，而气候政策不确定性则会促进极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的正向影响。异质性检验表明：在生态环境韧性弱、经济政策不确定性程度高以及城投债务规模较小时，极端天气对商业银行系统性风险的促进作用更强。研究结论为防范和化解气候相关系统性金融风险提供了重要启示。 |
| English Summary: |
| Extreme weather brings great disasters to natural ecology and human society, and poses serious challenges to financial stability and sustainable development, and climate financial risk has gradually become an important topic among academics and policy makers. Based on the data of 121 local commercial banks in China and the number of extreme weather days in each city from 2007 to 2023, we explore the impact of extreme weather on the systemic risk of commercial banks. It is found that extreme weather significantly exacerbates commercial bank systemic risk and still holds after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism of action test shows that extreme weather exacerbates commercial bank systemic risk mainly by increasing direct economic losses from natural disasters and weakening the resilience of the industrial chain. The moderating mechanism test shows that bank competition can moderate the positive impact of extreme weather on commercial bank systemic risk, while climate policy uncertainty promotes the positive impact of extreme weather on commercial bank systemic risk. The heterogeneity test shows that the promotion of extreme weather on commercial bank systemic risk is stronger when the ecological resilience is weak, the degree of economic policy uncertainty is high, and the size of municipal investment debt is small. The findings provide important insights for preventing and mitigating climate-related systemic financial risks. |
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