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| 外部冲击下中国城市土地市场公共政策效应评估 |
| Evaluation of public policy effects of China"s urban land market under external shocks |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-31 修订日期：2024-09-12 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地经济 土地价格 断点回归模型 压力测试 公共政策 中国城市 |
| English Keywords:Land economy Land prices Breakpoint regression model Stress testing Public policy Chinese cities |
| Fund Project: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 深化关于外部冲击下中国城市土地市场的公共政策效应评估,为相关政策的制定提供一定的理论支持。采用季节调整法和HP滤波法,使用35个城市政府、企业和居民三部门的21期季度收入数据,对理论模型中的重大公共卫生事件这一外部冲击的影响进行了测度；另外采用断点回归方法,实证了重大公共卫生事件冲击下财政政策和货币政策对土地价格的影响,通过分区和分层进一步进行稳定性检验和异质性检验。研究结果：(1)重大公共卫生事件冲击对三部门运行在短期内仍造成了较大波动,其中房地产企业部门的短期波动最大；(2)突发的重大公共卫生事件对城市土地市场有明显的破坏效应,而公共政策对城市土地市场进行了修正,对土地价格的恢复有显著的正向作用,但随着重大公共卫生事件冲击程度加大而减小；(3)公共政策对中国不同地区、不同城市、不同用途用地市场的政策效应有差异。政策建议：外部冲击影响的传导路径遵循“从需求限制到预期抑制再到投资和供给减少”的轨迹,虽然外生冲击下公共政策对城市土地市场的积极影响得到证实,但此类政策的副作用也不容忽视,其效应在城市间、不同地类间以及时效性等方面差异较大。鉴于中国经济社会形势的变化,需加紧制定针对城市土地市场风险防控的公共政策预案,财政政策的力度把握及其与货币政策的相互配合需要进一步改进。 |
| English Summary: |
| This study explores the impacts of public policies on China’s urban land market amidst exogenous shocks, offering theoretical insights to support effective policy formulation. Utilizing seasonal adjustment and HP filtering methods, we assess the effects of the major public health events as an exogenous shock on 21 quarterly income data points from 35 cities across three sectors: government, enterprises, and residents. Employing a breakpoint regression approach, we also empirically demonstrate the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on land prices in the context of major public health events. Stability tests and heterogeneity tests are further performed through zoning and stratification. The results indicate that (1) the major public health events shock caused significant short-term fluctuations across all three sectors, with the real estate enterprise sector experiencing the largest short-term volatility; (2) The sudden onset of the major public health events significantly damaged the urban land market, however, public policies have corrected the market and recovered land prices, albeit with diminishing effects as the impact of major public health events intensifies; (3) Public policy effects very across different regions, cities, and land-use markets in China.The transmission pathway of the impact under exogenous shocks follows a trajectory from demand restriction to expectation suppression to investment and supply reduction. While the positive influence of public policies on urban land markets under external shocks like the major public health events has been confirmed, the potentially adverse effects of such policies cannot be overlooked. These effects exhibit significant variation across cities, land types, and timeliness. Given the evolving economic and social landscape of China, expediting the formulation of public policy plans for risk prevention and control in urban land markets is imperative. Improvements are warranted regarding the intensity of fiscal policy implementation and its synchronization with monetary policy. |
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