| 刘永胜,尚俊妤,柴铎,豆佳荣,周小平.重大事件下城市土地市场公共政策效应评估——基于35个大中城市的实证研究[J].,2024,(5):49-60 |
| 重大事件下城市土地市场公共政策效应评估——基于35个大中城市的实证研究 |
| Evaluation of Public Policy Effect of Urban Land Market under Major Events |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-31 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地经济 土地价格 断点回归模型 压力测试 公共政策 效应评估 |
| English Keywords:land economy land prices breakpoint regression model stress testing public policy effect assessment ( |
| Fund Project: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 文章采用季节调整法和HP滤波法,使用35个城市政府、企业和居民三部门的21期季度收入数据,对理论模型中的重大公共卫生事件的影响进行了测度；采用断点回归方法,实证了重大公共卫生事件下公共政策对土地价格的影响,且通过分区和分层进一步进行稳定性检验和异质性检验。研究结果表明,重大公共卫生事件对三部门的运行在短期内仍造成了较大波动,其中房地产企业部门的短期波动最大,对城市土地市场有明显的破坏效应；公共政策对城市土地市场进行了修正,但修正程度随着冲击程度的加大而减小,对不同地区、不同城市、不同用途土地市场的政策效应也有差异。文章为深化关于重大事件下城市土地市场的公共政策效应评估提供了定量判断,为政府部门针对城市土地市场制定更精准有效的公共政策提供了一定的理论支撑。 |
| English Summary: |
| In this paper, the seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method are used to measure the impact of major public health events in the theoretical model by using 21 quarterly income data of 35 municipal governments, enterprises and residents. In addition, the breakpoint regression method is used to empirically test the impact of public policy on land price under major public health events, and further stability test and heterogeneity test are carried out through zoning and stratification. The results show that major public health events still cause large fluctuations in the three sectors in the short term, among which the real estate enterprise sector has the largest short-term fluctuation and has a significant destructive effect on the urban land market. The public policy has revised the urban land market, but it decreases with the increase of the impact degree, and the policy effects on different regions, different cities and different land use markets are also different. The conclusion of this paper provides a quantitative judgment for deepening the evaluation of public policy effects of urban land market under major events, and provides some theoretical support for government departments to formulate more accurate and effective public policies for urban land market. |
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