| 谢天,黄海南,曾敏,吴娟.重大疫情下基于系统动力学的网络舆情应急响应研究[J].,2022,(5):57-70 |
| 重大疫情下基于系统动力学的网络舆情应急响应研究 |
| Emergency Response Strategies for Network Public Opinion Under Major Epidemics Based on System Dynamics |
| 投稿时间：2022-04-22 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 重大疫情 系统动力学 网络舆情 应急响应策略 |
| English Keywords:major epidemic system dynamics network public opinion new government media emergency response strategies ( |
| Fund Project: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 218 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| SARS和新型冠状肺炎等重大疫情催生的负面网络舆情容易引发物价飞涨、民众恐慌等次生效应,造成巨大社会危害。洞悉舆情传播规律,利用政务新媒体及时引导与控制其演化趋势,对控制疫情、稳定经济社会秩序具有重要意义。文章基于“情景—回应”视角,利用COVID-19期间的十五次舆情事件数据建立系统动力学仿真模型。基于“逆向回归法”,进一步提高模型的仿真效果。以“接子回荆”事件为例,文章通过建模、仿真、分析,验证了模型的有效性。对政务新媒体回应策略进行模拟分析,结果表明:政务新媒体的回应频率和媒体的影响力程度会对舆情热度产生非线性影响；政务新媒体的回应速度会对舆情的峰值、谷值以及生命周期产生较大影响。 |
| English Summary: |
| The negative online public opinion arising from major epidemics such as SARS and COVID-19 can easily trigger negative results such as soaring prices and public panic, causing great social harm. Understanding the law of public opinion dissemination and using new government media to guide and control the development trend of public opinion are of great significance to stabilize the economy and social order. From the perspective of “scenario-response”, this paper uses the data of fifteen public opinion events during COVID-19 to build a system dynamics model, and based on the “reverse regression” method to further improve the simulation effect. Taking “Jiezi Huijing” event as an example, the reliability of the model is verified. The model results show that:the response frequency of new government media and the degree of media influence will have non-linear effects on the heat of public opinion; the response speed of new government media can have a large impact on the peak, valley and life cycle of public opinion. |
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