刘升学,康利机,陈鸣,付跃龙.制造业集聚与城镇化的互动关系研究——来自衡阳市2000-2016年的经验证据[J].,2019,(1):49-55
制造业集聚与城镇化的互动关系研究——来自衡阳市2000-2016年的经验证据
Research on the Interaction between Manufacturing Agglomeration and Urbanization
投稿时间:2018-11-17  
DOI:
中文关键词:  VAR模型  制造业集聚  城镇化  衡阳市
English Keywords:VAR model  manufacturing agglomeration  urbanization  Hengyang City
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作者单位
刘升学 南华大学 经济管理与法学学院,湖南 衡阳 421001 
康利机 南华大学 经济管理与法学学院,湖南 衡阳 421001 
陈鸣 南华大学 经济管理与法学学院,湖南 衡阳 421001 
付跃龙 南华大学 经济管理与法学学院,湖南 衡阳 421001 
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中文摘要:
      文章通过建立VAR模型并采用衡阳市2000-2016年的时间序列数据考察了制造业集聚与城镇化之间的互动关系。研究结果显示:制造业集聚与城镇化之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并在此基础上运用Granger因果检验方法得出它们之间具有双向的因果关系;制造业集聚与城镇化都存在自我发展的惯性现象;不管是在短期还是在长期中,制造业集聚对城镇化具有显著的负面影响,而城镇化对制造业集聚的抑制效果仅表现在短期中,长期影响效果甚微;在考察期内,导致制造业集聚和城镇化的波动主要还是自身因素,但制造业集聚对城镇化的影响效果仍不容忽视。最后,结合衡阳市的实际情况对制造业集聚与城镇化发展提出了相应的政策建议。
English Summary:
      This paper examines the interaction between manufacturing agglomeration and urbanization by establishing a VAR model and using time series data from 2000 to 2016 in Hengyang City. The results show that:there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and urbanization, and on this basis, the Granger causality test method is used to obtain a two-way causal relationship between them; manufacturing industry agglomeration and urbanization have the inertia of self-development; whether in the short-term or in the long-term, manufacturing agglomeration has a significant negative impact on urbanization, while urbanization's restraining effect on manufacturing agglomeration is only in the short-term, and the long-term impact is minimal; during the period of investigation, the fluctuations leading to manufacturing agglomeration and urbanization are mainly self-factors, but the effect of manufacturing agglomeration on urbanization cannot be ignored. Finally, combined with the actual situation of Hengyang city, it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the industrial agglomeration and urbanization development.
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