| 刘升学,廖桑.基于数学建模的人口结构与经济发展研究[J].,2016,17(3):46-50 |
| 基于数学建模的人口结构与经济发展研究 |
| The Research on Population Structure and Economic Development |
| 投稿时间：2016-02-25 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 人口预测模型 老龄化 劳动人口 经济发展 |
| English Keywords:population structure aging the workforce economic growth |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 文章通过梳理我国第六次人口普查的相关数据,建立了人口总量增长、未来老龄人口和劳动人口三个预测模型,通过SPSS软件拟合人口出生率和死亡率的发展曲线,及劳动和老龄人口历年增长率的曲线方程,得到预测未来人口总量、老龄人口和劳动人口所占比例发展趋势。预计在2026年我国人口总量达到峰值(142010万人),这与国家人口战略研究报告中预测的数据接近。根据计算的结果,结合修正的道格拉斯模型,讨论了人口结构的变化对经济发展的影响。 |
| English Summary: |
| In this paper, by analyzing China's sixth census and related data, the prediction model about growth of total population, future aging population and labor population are established. In addition, we fit the development curve of birth and death rate and the curve equation with the annual growth rate of labor and aging population by SPSS, and we get the percentage development trend, which predicts the future total population, aging population and labor population. Through the above model, we predict the total population will reach to the peak (1420.1 million) in 2026, which is close to the data predicted in national research report about population strategy. According to the above results and combined with Douglas model, we discussed the influence of demographic change on economic development. |
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