武良鹏,邹树梁,刘文君.核事故早期应急群决策模型研究[J].,2015,16(5):6-13
核事故早期应急群决策模型研究
Research on the Model of Group Decision Making for Nuclear Early Emergency Response
投稿时间:2015-10-08  
DOI:
中文关键词:  核事故  早期应急  效用函数  乐观系数  一致性
English Keywords:nuclear accident early emergency response utility function optimistic coefficient consistency
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作者单位
武良鹏,邹树梁,刘文君 (南华大学 经济与管理学院 湖南 衡阳 421001) 
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中文摘要:
      有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。
English Summary:
      The rapid and effective early emergency response decision is the last necessary parclose after the nuclear accident, so the rapid and effective decision-making is the most important. Firstly, the utility function is proposed to calculate the optimistic coefficient of decision makers, then, turned the interval number and fuzzy value into real After it, a decision model of individuals and groups will be established, in order to improve the effectiveness of decision-making at the same time ,according to the results of ranking,a judgment matrix will be employed to check out the consistency between group and individual, thereby the expert internal agreement will be improved finally, a case is applied to demonstrate its feasibility.
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